We are going to try a little experiment for this race: I’ll keep a running diary throughout the 3 day Formula One weekend and we’ll see if my "predictions" come true regarding the outcome of qualifying and the race.

We will start off with the circuit itself. The "Hungaroring" is the 13th stop on the 2002 F1 calendar and the track is considered to be rather boring by the majority of F1 drivers. The track itself is full of twists and turns with no long straights to speak of. The only real overtaking area is under braking into turn one. Since it is little used outside of F1 the track has a tendency to be dirty and dusty at the beginning of the weekend and it is common to see drivers slide off the track or spin in the early going. Being a low speed handling type circuit the favored cars will be those with a really good chassis and excellent balance. Good tires will also play a role. Generally speaking, engines and aerodynamics play a lesser role on a circuit such as this.

Without a doubt the best chassis in F1 today belongs to Ferrari. I would expect them to dominate qualifying and the race this weekend (even more so than usual). Tires are a big question mark as both manufactures will be gambling on an appropriate compound for the conditions. Hungary is known for high temperatures at this time of year and the weekend forecast is for dry, hot weather. Therefore Michelin should be favored (slight advantage for Jaguar, expect to see them slightly higher up the grid than is usual).

The news is that Arrows will not be running this weekend so that should give further advantage to the teams that usually qualify behind them (such as Jaguar). In other news, Jaguar has not confirmed their driver line-up for next year and it is known that an offer is on the table to Eddie Irvine but at a much reduced salary. Why bother paying a driver big money if he’s going to drive a crappy car at the back of the grid?

Friday practice

Pedro de la Rosa in the garage at the Hungaroring (Picture Jaguar Racing - Mark Thompson/Getty Images)

Warm and sunny but not as hot as predicted. No surprises in the morning session as the Ferraris dominate with Schumacher 1.6 seconds ahead of the nearest competitor. Remember that Friday is really a day when teams work on various set-up combinations for both the race and the qualifying. Some cars are running heavy fuel loads to simulate race conditions and some are running light fuel loads to simulate qualifying conditions. Therefore the times don’t really mean too much although the really fast cars tend to "float" to the top of the time charts.

As for Jaguar: De la Rosa manages a 13th quickest, 2.6 seconds off the pace (a lot!) after running 18 laps (average number of laps relative to the rest of the field); he slides off the track at one point (dusty) with no damage. Irvine manages a 17th quickest, 3.3 seconds off the pace (!). He runs only 12 laps, which is a relatively low number. No word on why he runs so few laps.

In the afternoon session there are again no surprises as the Ferraris top the charts, Schumacher 8/10ths of a second faster than his brother in the Williams. Things are starting to look a little more normal as we have two McLarens, two Ferraris and one Williams in the top ten. The only question mark surrounds Montoya in the other Williams who seems to struggle to find the right set-up and ends up 16th fastest. De la Rosa runs 41 laps and clocks 9th fastest time, 1.7 seconds off the pace (remember the Michelin tires, the hotter weather and the lack of Arrows). Irvine goes for a spin early but recovers to post 13th fastest time after 32 laps, 2.3 seconds off the pace.

Prediction for Saturday’s qualifying: no question that Ferrari should top the charts with Schumacher on pole and Barrichello second. The McLarens and Williams should fight it out for the next four spots. The only surprise could come in the form of Michelin tires. If they manage to concoct a "magic" compound for the weekend then we could possibly see the Williams drivers competing for second spot on the grid and maybe (maybe!) even pole. As it sits, we will likely see a mix of Willimases and McLarens in the three to six spots. As for Jaguar, expect to see them qualify 3 or 4 places higher than they usually do given the hot track, Michelin tires and lack of Arrows. Look for them to qualify in the twelve to sixteen slots.

Saturday Qualifying

Saturday's qualifying held relatively few surprises (and my predictions were pretty well spot on!). We have an all-Ferrari front row and an all-Williams second row. Two surprises: McLaren gets it all wrong and are well down the grid, allowing the Saubers and the Renaults to sneak up the list. Fisichella puts in a "cracker" of a lap right on the limit and qualifies 5th. The second surprise is Barrichello. To my eyes, neither Ferrari driver was able to put together anywhere near a perfect lap today. But Barrichello was able to go around with only one serious mistake while Michael made two or three on his best lap. Such is the superiority of the Ferraris that even a less than perfect lap from their #2 driver is enough to secure pole (by almost half a second over the best Williams). Rubens got through by the skin of his teeth, his best lap clocking in at 59 thousands of a second faster than his teammate.

The Jaguar report is as follows: no surprises. At least Pedro was honest enough to admit his 15th place (2.5 seconds off the pace) was as good as the car had to offer. Pretty depressing. Eddie complained about his car all weekend and placed 16th on the grid, a full half-second behind his own teammate and 3 seconds off the pole time. Thank goodness the Toyotas and Minardis stink even worse than we do! My prediction was for Jaguars somewhere in the 12th to 16th spots and they had to prove me right by hitting the low end of the scale.

Race prediction: the Hungarian GP is known as a "processional" race. That means the order after the first lap (or corner) will largely be the order at the end of the race. There will be practically no passing, pit stops being the preferred overtaking strategy. The only question is: will Ferrari let the boys race or will they try to arrange a Barrichello victory. Considering the tarnishing their image has taken this year we may see the Brazilian win. So by all means watch the start, it may be the most exciting part of the race!

My bets: Schumacher, Barrichello, Montoya, Ralf, Raikonnen, Button, Coulthard. See you tomorrow!

Sunday Race Report

A "processional" race was what I predicted and a processional race is what we got. I was hoping for an exciting first lap but it didn't happen. The order on the first corner was Barrichello, Michael, Ralf, Fisichella, Massa (Sauber) and Button. The order at the end was Barrichello, Michael, Ralf, Raikonnen, Coulthard and Fisichella. You have to admit, my predictions were not too bad. Ferrari did as I expected they would and installed team orders to make sure Barichello "won" this race. Make no mistake, there were team orders in place, most likely to the effect that whomever came out of the second pit stop in front got to win the race. And Barrichello just BARELY made it out in front of his teammate. All credit to him as he drove a textbook race and deserved to win. Michael appeared to be on a Sunday drive in the park and I'm sure he had no desire to risk life and limb in an aggressive attempt to get by Rubens.

No surprise really to see Montoya throw away another race. This guy is ultra-competitive and I'm sure he finds it hard to accept being 1 second or more per lap slower than the Ferraris. At least Raikonnen got some satisfaction from pushing Montoya onto the grass after suffering the same fate in reverse during the last race.

I can't really recall a single decent pass with the exception of the Montoya-Raikonnen thing. Not a very exciting race.

The numbers will show that De la Rosa finished 13th in one Jaguar (2 laps down) and Irvine mercifully did not finish at all. Trust me, these guys were never a factor in the race. Same old, same old but with a new twist for speculations on the future of the team as Jordan F1 announced it had secured a 3 year engine deal with Ford. The new Jordan Ford partnership and the return of the Ford name to the grid raises serious doubt about the future of the Jaguar F1 team. Stay tuned...

The Ferraris were all alone again. Despite being on the same fuel load strategy as Ralf in the pursuing Williams, they managed to pull out nearly a five second advantage in the first 5 laps. No contest really.

See you next race. The Belgian Grand Prix at Spa is one of the most breathtaking on the calendar, with some of the most hair-raising corners in all of Formula One. I'll try to post a pre-race track analysis to give you a taste of what's coming.

updated 8/18/2002